Influenza epidemics, a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, are influenced by climate factors including absolute humidity and temperature. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, potentially impacting the duration and magnitude of future influenza epidemics. However, the extent of these projected effects on influenza outbreaks remains understudied. Here, we use an epidemiologic model adapted for temperate and tropical climates to explore how climate variability may affect seasonal influenza. Using climate anomalies derived from historical data, we found that simulated periods of anomalous climate conditions impacted both the projected influenza outbreak peak size and the total proportion infected, with the strongest effects observed when the anomaly was included just before the typical peak. Effects varied by climate: temperate regions showed a unimodal relationship, while tropical climates exhibited a nonlinear pattern. Our results emphasize that the intensity of weather extremes is key to understanding how climate change may affect influenza outbreaks, laying the groundwork for utilizing weather variability as a potential early warning for influenza activity.
Read Article
Pandemic Center
Rachel Baker, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Environment and Society, at the Brown University School of Public Health and the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society
Biography
Dr. Baker is an Assistant Professor with a joint appointment between the Department of Epidemiology at the Brown University School of Public Health and the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society.
Her work explores and seeks to understand the implications of climate change for human health, with a particular focus on infectious disease, using a combination of statistical inference and mechanistic disease modeling. As climate change continues to pose new challenges for public health, Dr. Baker’s work will help the Pandemic Center identify best solutions to protect humans and the environment. Dr. Baker’s work has been published in several journals including Science, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Nature Communications and Climatic Change and featured in media outlets including The New York Times, The Atlantic, WIRED Magazine and Scientific American.